Trends in Yuan Payments

Settlements in yuan are certainly useful, but it should not be forgotten that trading in a national currency always involves managing specific trade balances, because it is very easy to encounter situations similar to Sberbank’s “stuck rupees” or VTB’s lack of yuan.

As Matroskin said, in order to sell something unnecessary, you first need to buy something unnecessary. Similarly, to sell rupees to Sberbank, you first need to purchase something in India, and VTB had to sell something in order to buy yuan.

This is where the major advantage of the dollar lies: it is needed by everyone and universally accepted. In August 2024, the share of the yuan in global trade turnover was about 5%, while the dollar accounted for roughly 50%. The share of the yuan and other national currencies is increasing at the expense of the euro, which fell to 20%. However, by April 2025, the share of the yuan had dropped to only 3.5%. It should be noted that these figures are very approximate.

China itself is actively promoting the yuan as a means of international payment. For example, in May 2025, the People’s Bank of China (their equivalent of a central bank) raised the minimum threshold for yuan settlements from 25% to 40%. This requirement is not mandatory for banks but is recommended.

At the same time, the share of the yuan, as well as the euro, in global trade should be considered in context. The high share of the euro is largely supported by the existence of the Eurozone; if this is not taken into account, the dollar’s share would be even higher. Researchers also often overlook trade between the two parts of China — Hong Kong and Mainland China — which is conducted in yuan and significantly inflates the yuan’s share in international settlements.

In other words, the dollar remains strong and continues to dominate. A shift away from the dollar can only occur as a result of prolonged systemic changes in global politics. If current trends continue, its share may gradually decline, and we might eventually move toward some form of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), but this would take decades… Trump’s tariffs, in general, have contributed to this dynamic.

To accelerate the creation of an independent financial system, specialized CBDCs could be used; however, this is an extremely complex task that requires significant investment, expertise, and time. I would not expect this to happen within BRICS, an association that is, in reality, paradoxical due to the internal contradictions among its members.